Some fresh ideas we’ve been working on...
Public Storage (PSA) Hoards the REIT Market
Once mundane self-storage operators tell an attractive new story.
Netflix (NFLX): New Media or Just Another Rerun?
Overwhelming historical data indicates that Netflix should be valued just like any other media and distribution company.
All That Glitters Is Not Crypto
Inflation and concerns about war is highlight the lack of emotional reaction in virtual currencies like Bitcoin. Tactile stores of value like gold are playing fascinating new roles.
A Little Nip and Tuck: AirSculpt (AIRS)
Masks are coming off. Families are heading going back to the beach. And consumers are suddenly considering cosmetic procedures to revamp their looks. A family a technology enablers should benefit.
Bad Beat in Sports Betting: MGM Resorts International (MGM)
States are beginning to release actual financial data on the performance of newly legalized online sports betting. While the total wagered both online and in casinos, that actual taxable profits that flow to both investors and taxpayers are razor thin.
Logistics for an Unflat World: Air Transport Services Group (ATSG)
War, pandemics and high prices for fuel is putting a premium on smaller air cargo companies that can adapt and still get critical goods through.
Luminar (LAZR) Positions Itself at the EV Crossroads
Electric vehicles are no longer science fiction. In fact, today’s freshman class of EVs feel closer to mundane consumer electronics then to traditional cars and trucks. The “PC factor” of EVs will profoundly affect consumer adoption and investor value of electric vehicles.
Is “Covid Flight” Real? Moving Data Says, Maybe
United Van Lines released its annual migration data survey. Covid was seen as the major driver. But deeper analysis reveals that Americans have migrated in consistent ways since the late 1970s. A pandemic was not a major factor, at least statistically.
Is AI Lender Upstart (UPST) Living on Borrowed Time?
Fast growing automated lending platform Upstart Holdings is showing aggressive growth. But opaque machine learning, higher than expected costs, and a grim history for alternative lending products dim the company’s prospects.
Losing the Cold (Class) War: American Airlines (AAL)
A Cold War is brewing. But this time, it’s not a 1960s Soviet Union vs. United States battle for global dominance. Instead, a deep and stubborn (yet not particularly violent) class war is afoot inside the modern enterprise. The battle lines of this social upheaval will not be sketched out by liner neo-19th century cadres of investors, managers, and workers,
The Profit-Free Economy
American companies are picking up a nasty habit of not making money. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (or BEA) announced last month that growth in quarterly corporate profits slowed in 2021. But the BEA made it clear, that if favorable tax treatments were removed, the vast majority of companies lose money.
Covid Crash Testing: Seat Belt Adoption Data Mirrors Vaccination Hesitancy
Consumers have a long history of avoiding the things that make them safer. For example, seat belts: Since the 1950s, Sweden's largest vehicle maker, Volvo, has studied over 43,000 vehicle collisions. From the beginning researchers faced a grim, but relentless truth: Similar to the adoption of vaccines, consumers flatly refused to make themselves safer.
Is Grill Giant Weber (WEBR) Undercooked or Overdone?
Storied grill and outdoor equipment maker Weber came to the public with an IPO this year. But slow future growth will make the going tough.
The Great “Crypto-Swap”: Flywire (FLWY)
Cryptoswaps, anyone? A new wave of cryptocurrency-based financial firms is making traditional risk management tools, like credit default swaps and currency hedges, applicable to cybercurrencies.
Dr. RollUp: PE Bets Big on Consolidating Medical Practices
Pandemics were supposed to hasten the deployment of innovative medical technologies. They don’t. Instead, traditional restructuring of medical practices by private equity will be the major force in medicine.
Avoiding the Vanity Space Race: Leidos Holdings (LDOS)
Billionaires like Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, and Richard Branson might capture investor imagination. But it is little known space-services provider Dynetics, a unit of Leidos Holdings, that will really put rockets into orbit.
FREE Federal Spending Data Could Help Earn Investors Millions
Federal data supplier, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, has been quietly publishing real-time consumer spending data. We took a look and found it indicates a soft pandemic recovery.
Dressed for Post-Pandemic Success: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
New forms of data are shedding new light on retail activity. A study of email marketing traffic appears to have anticipated Abercrombie & Fitche’s recent record quarter.
Un-Inflation: The Lumber Industry Defies an Old Saw
Inflation seems no longer to be the hammer that can flatten. economies. Now how rising prices affect market is all in the eye of the beholder.
Winning in the Fog of Retail War: Dollar General (DG)
America might be a divided county. But where those fractures are, as North America emerges from its pandemic-induced hibernation, are surprisingly unknown.